Wednesday, February 17, 2016

THE NUMBER NUMBLERS ... IT'S NOT OVER UNTIL ... THE FAT LADY BARKS



Here’s a look at the latest GOP polling data in South Carolina:

RealClear Politics Polling Average

The RealClear Politics South Carolina polling average consists of five polls conducted between February 10 and February 16: The Monmouth poll, conducted February 14-16; a South Carolina House GOP caucus poll conducted February 15; an American Research Group (ARG) poll conducted February 14-16; a Public Policy Polling (PPP) poll conducted February 14-15; and a CNN/ORC poll conducted February 10-16.
CANDIDATEVOTE%
Donald Trump35%
Ted Cruz17.8%
Marco Rubio16%
Jeb Bush9.8%
John Kasich9%
Ben Carson6%

Monmouth University Poll

The Monmouth poll was conducted February 14-16. It has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.
CANDIDATEVOTE%
Donald Trump35%
Ted Cruz19%
Marco Rubio17%
John Kasich9%
Jeb Bush8%
Ben Carson7%

South Carolina House GOP Caucus Poll

The latest House GOP caucus poll was conducted February 15. It has a margin of error of 2.4 percentage points.
CANDIDATEVOTE%
Donald Trump34%
Ted Cruz16%
Marco Rubio15%
Jeb Bush15%
John Kasich8%
Ben Carson7%

ARG Poll

The latest ARG poll was conducted February 14-16. It has a margin of error of 5 percentage points.
CANDIDATEVOTE%
Donald Trump33%
Marco Rubio16%
Ted Cruz14%
John Kasich14%
Jeb Bush9%
Ben Carson3%

PPP Poll

Public Policy Polling released its latest South Carolina survey on Tuesday morning. The poll was conducted February 14 and 15 and has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points. In addition to asking respondents for whom they plan to vote in Saturday’s primary, PPP asked respondents who they would pick in hypothetical matchups if there were fewer choices. You can check out the full poll for all of the data. But a sampling of the key findings is below.

6-Way Race (Slate of Candidates in the Race Now)

CANDIDATEVOTE%
Donald Trump35%
Marco Rubio18%
Ted Cruz18%
John Kasich10%
Jeb Bush7%
Ben Carson7%

4 Way Race Between Trump, Cruz, Rubio & Bush

CANDIDATEVOTE%
Donald Trump39%
Marco Rubio21%
Ted Cruz20%
Jeb Bush12%

3-Way Race Between Trump, Rubio & Cruz

CANDIDATEVOTE%
Donald Trump40%
Marco Rubio28%
Ted Cruz22%

2-Way Race Between Trump & Rubio

CANDIDATEVOTE%
Donald Trump46%
Marco Rubio45%

2-Way Race Between Trump & Cruz

CANDIDATEVOTE%
Donald Trump48%
Ted Cruz38%

2-Way Race Between Trump & Bush

 CANDIDATE VOTE%
 Donald Trump 50%
 Jeb Bush 40%

2-Way Race Between Rubio & Cruz

CANDIDATEVOTE%
Marco Rubio47%
Ted Cruz37%

CNN/ORC Poll

The CNN/ORC poll was conducted February 10-15. It has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
CANDIDATEVOTE%
Donald Trump36%
Ted Cruz22%
Marco Rubio14%
Jeb Bush10%
Ben Carson6%
John Kasich4%