Wednesday, August 31, 2022

THE REALITY IS WE'RE LIVING IN AN AGE OF EXTREMES ... STUPIDITY!!!

 

Just Days After Phasing Out New Gas Cars, California Says "Avoid Charging EVs" Amid Grid Emergency

Update (1820ET): Shortly after 1800ET, just as Californians begin to head home for the day, the California Independent System Operator issued a level-1 energy emergency alert shortly after tapping all its available power supplies.

Despite earlier warnings to reduce usage, Californians - in all their self-righteous virtue - decided to charge their EV anyway, pushing demand above capacity

Bear in mind that it is not even in the scheduled Flex Alert period (from 4pm to 9pm PST) yet.

“It’s pretty clear Mother Nature has outrun us,” California Governor Gavin Newsom, who issued an executive order Wednesday to free up emergency power supplies, said during a news conference.

“The reality is we’re living in an age of extremes -- extreme heat, extreme drought.”

...and extreme lack of grid preparedness for your state's virtue-signaling.

*  *  *

Update (1600ET): As the day went on, California warmed up more than expected and that has prompted California's grid operator to issue a specific warning of the potential for power shortfalls that could lead to blackouts on Wednesday night.

Officials asked residents to cut back on power use Wednesday between 4 and 9 p.m. as temperatures soar above 100 degrees Fahrenheit.

“This is a manifestation of what CAISO warned folks about back in May, that unless they see voluntary curtailments the grid could become unstable during certain periods of high demand,” said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at risk management firm Tradition Energy. 

“In this case it is extreme heat that is causing it, but overall weakness in the supply picture are adding to the issue.”

The heat poses the biggest test to the grid since the summer of 2020, when rolling outages engulfed portions of the state. 

*  *  *

California power grid officials have a sobering warning this week, telling customers to brace for potential blackouts as the state's grid faces capacity constraints over the Labor Day weekend.

"The top three conservation actions are to set thermostats to 78 degrees or higher, avoid using large appliances and charging electric vehicles, and turn off unnecessary lights. 

"Lowering electricity use during that time will ease strain on the system, and prevent more drastic measures, including rotating power outages," California Independent System Operator (CAISO) told customers. 

California's grid is projected to exceed 48,000 megawatts next Monday, the highest of the year, as a menacing heatwave will send temperatures across the state 10-20 degrees above normal through next Tuesday

The fact that CAISO has to ask customers not to charge their EVs during the current heatwave implies the grid is fragile.

"If weather or grid conditions worsen, the ISO may issue a series of emergency notifications to access additional resources and prepare market participants and the public for potential energy shortages and the need to conserve," California's grid operator warned. 

A surge in EV charging at home could bring down parts of the state's grid. 

So much for the green energy transition to unreliable renewable solar and wind. 

How exactly is the progressive state - which is hellbent on ridding fossil fuel generation from the grid and replacing it with unreliable solar and wind - going to support all the new EVs after lawmakers passed a new measure last week to eliminate all gas-powered vehicles by 2035?

Nuclear is the only answer to decarbonizing a power grid with sustainable power generation. Asia gets it

Grid operators are concerned by the increasing use of air conditioners, and as the evening rolls around, people plug in their EVs to charge, increasing power demand as supply constraints suggest the state will have years of a chaotic grid, similar to a third world country. 

FAUCI HONORARIUM ... LIFE-TIME ACHIEVEMENT AWARD ~ "UNINTENTIONAL ERRORS"

 

US life expectancy plummeting ...

YOU'RE ALWAYS HUNGRY TWO HOURS AFTER EATING

CHINA'S DIM PROSPECTS TURN DISASTROUS ... BUT WAIT THERE'S MORE

PUTIN DRIVING HIS SHIP OF STATE

Russia’s terrible war generates headlines, but China’s growing debt crisis is mostly ignored. And yet, it will have profound negative effects on the global economy. In just three generations, Beijing built a middle class bigger than America’s entire population. But now Chinese many face ruination. China’s domestic real estate bubble, due to deregulation, is so gargantuan that much of its middle class has been damaged.


BULLSHIT WILL ONLY GET YOU GO FAR

“China’s debt bomb looks ready to explode and many warning signs suggest that a debt reckoning is imminent,” warns Nikkei Asia.

A massive mortgage revolt is underway, and as banks fail, protests grow. Today, 50 million empty or unfinished units bought on “spec” in hundreds of urban areas may never be completed or paid for, equivalent to one-third of all housing units in the United States.

POTHOLES ON THE BELT AND ROAD PROGRAM

Besides that, Beijing itself is owed $1 trillion  by struggling governments around the world that cannot afford to pay back loans for Belt and Road Initiative projects. The result of this domestic and foreign borrowing is that this year China’s debt is expected to reach the equivalent of 275 percent of its GDP due to massive borrowing and economic slowdown. The United States, by comparison, is expected this year to reach a debt level of 98 percent of its GDP.

PEARL S. BUCK (赛 珍 珠 ) AND THE CHINESE BUCK

The result of the (THE GOOD EARTH) property bubble is unusual defiance by the Chinese people toward their authoritarian government. Click here <---and you will see a rare glimpse of police violence against peaceful protesters that is starting to occur across the country. Unrest has grown because real estate speculation has been widespread for years, and most Chinese consider property ownership as a way to get ahead and secure an adequate retirement income.

But years of unbridled speculation has led to ever-increasing prices and overbuilding by aggressive developers, and now there is a glut, collapse in prices and widespread social discontent.

Beijing is blamed, along with local governments, and all mention of these troubles has been censored. But unrest spreads by word of mouth, which is a dangerous development in a country of 1.4 billion people, where putting deposits and owning several condos had become commonplace.

Essentially, China is a debt disaster in terms of foreign and domestic borrowing. At the same time, a cloud hangs over President Xi Jinping because of his diplomatic (albeit not military) support for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s genocide in Ukraine and energy attacks against Europe.

These calamities converge as Xi faces reelection by the Politburo in November and has even led to grumbling that the country under his leadership may have reached the end of its peak influence and reputation. It’s not implausible that, if this unfolding political crisis in the streets grows, China’s presidency may change or, worse, the Middle Kingdom may become unstable.

In rare acts of defiance, Chinese gather in public to object to the situation, and millions are refusing to repay loans on their unfinished apartments. This massive mortgage boycott movement began in early July and has now spread to 100 cities, involving 320 massive property development projects and many banks. 

Recently, China’s Politburo issued a statement assuring property buyers that the government would help cash-starved developers finish such projects and that $44 billion would be dispensed to prop up their companies and their banks.

But this is a paltry amount, and millions of Chinese buyers need financial relief or else they will be left in the lurch.

“China’s real estate slump has sucked in both banks and provincial governments, threatening a bigger impact on the world’s second-largest economy,” reports Nikkei Asia. “Defaults have soared over the past 12 months. Real estate has been a key driver of the Chinese economy in the last two decades. Real estate and related activities now account for around 29 percent of gross domestic product, up from less than 10 percent at the end of the 1990s.” 

The first crack appeared when Evergrande Group stopped paying its debts or finishing projects. It had obtained free land from politicians in smaller urban centers and mortgage financing from local banks, then convinced people to snap up multiple units in the belief that demand and prices would never drop.

THE FLY IN THE COMMUNIST OINTMENT

  • Simply rub onto skin for relief, flammable keep away from fire, sparks and heated surfaces ... in particular lies from your government.

Tuesday, August 30, 2022

A GOAT, JURRASTIC PARK, AND FBI

 

Top agent exits FBI amid charge of political bias undermining Hunter Biden probe: Sources

President Joe Biden with son Hunter Biden, right, leaves Kiawah Island Beach Club at Kiawah Island, S.C., Monday, Aug. 15, 2022. Biden is in Kiawah Island with his family on vacation. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)
President Joe Biden with son Hunter Biden, right, leaves Kiawah Island Beach Club at Kiawah Island, S.C., Monday, Aug. 15, 2022. Biden is in Kiawah Island with his family on vacation. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)

A senior FBI official in the bureau’s Washington field office has abruptly resigned after coming under congressional scrutiny for suspected political bias in handling the investigation of Hunter Biden’s laptop computer.

The Washington Times learned that Timothy Thibault, an assistant special agent in charge, was forced to leave his post. The information came from two former FBI officials familiar with the situation.

Mr. Thibault was seen exiting the bureau’s elevator on Friday. He was escorted by two or three “headquarters-looking types,” according to eyewitness accounts provided to one of the former officials.

It is not clear whether Mr. Thibault left on his own accord or was forced out of the bureau. The 25-year FBI veteran was on leave for at least a month over revelations about political statements he made while leading the public corruption unit.

The FBI declined to comment. Attempts to contact Mr. Thibault were unsuccessful.

Republican lawmakers have been scrutinizing Mr. Thibault for making anti-Trump statements in social media posts in 2020. At the time, he was helping lead the FBI’s probe of Hunter Biden, whose father, President Biden, was running for the White House.

SEE ALSO: Mark Zuckerberg: Facebook suppressed Hunter Biden laptop story per FBI general request 

In February and September of 2020, Mr. Thibault liked separate Washington Post opinion pieces criticizing Attorney General William Barr for not more aggressively prosecuting Mr. Trump’s political allies and close associates.

Mr. Thibault also retweeted a post by the Lincoln Project, a Republican group that called Mr. Trump “a psychologically broken, embittered and deeply unhappy man.”

During recent testimony before the Senate, FBI Director Christopher A. Wray dodged questions about Mr. Thibault and his social media posts. He called them “ongoing personnel matters.”

Mr. Thibault, according to the former official, was also known for pushing out unvaccinated agents from the FBI’s election squad whom he suspected to be Trump supporters.

One of the former officials, a whistleblower talking to the House Judiciary Committee, was placed on indefinite suspension last year by the bureau because he attended the “Stop the Steal” rally in Washington on Jan. 6, 2021. The rally preceded a pro-Trump mob storming of the Capitol. The former official said he never entered the Capitol. 

After resigning late last year, he said, other FBI officials were “purged” for attending the rally on their own time and not on official FBI business.

SEE ALSO: Whistleblowers describe ‘out of control’ culture of corruption at FBI field offices 

“Look, I think some of the executives that were involved in my indefinite suspension are the same cast of characters involved in pulling security clearances for conservative employees in retaliation for their disfavored political speech,” he said.

Former President Donald Trump, in a statement about Mr. Thibault, said on Monday night, “The fired agent who was just escorted out of the FBI headquarters is the person who got the FBI to do a Raid on a home, Mar-a-Lago, that has ‘stirred’ the World and created anger and hostility toward the FBI and DOJ the likes of which has perhaps never been seen in our Country before.”

Sen. Charles E. Grassley of Iowa, the top Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee, sought records from the Department of Justice in late May regarding the work history of Mr. Thibault after reports of politically charged bias on social media platforms.

Mr. Grassley told The Times on Monday that Mr. Thibault’s departure from the FBI would not resolve questions of how political bias was affecting federal investigations.

“Mr. Thibault’s blatant partisanship undermined the work and reputation of the FBI. This type of bias in high-profile investigations casts a shadow over all of the bureau’s work that he was involved in, which ranged from opening an investigation into Trump based on liberal news articles to shutting down investigative activity into Hunter Biden that was based on verified information,” Mr. Grassley said in a statement to The Times.

“Political bias should have no place at the FBI, and the effort to revive the FBI’s credibility can’t stop with his exit. We need accountability, which is why Congress must continue investigating and the inspector general must fully investigate as I’ve requested,” he said.

In May, Mr. Grassley wrote to the inspector general to request an investigation of Mr. Thibault’s potential violations of rules and regulations designed to prevent political bias from interfering in FBI investigations.

In testimony to the Senate, Mr. Wray downplayed Mr. Thibault’s connection to the FBI probe of Hunter Biden’s laptop computer, which revealed shady business dealings and potential influence peddling that surfaced during the 2020 presidential campaign.

Still, Mr. Wray acknowledged during the committee hearing that Mr. Thibault’s social media activity was concerning.

“I should say that when I read the letter that describes the kinds of things that you’re talking about, I found it deeply troubling,” he said, stressing that such actions were “not representative of the FBI.”

Sen. John Kennedy, Louisiana Republican, said the episode was further eroding the public’s confidence in the FBI and must be addressed.

“You’re killing yourselves with this stuff,” Mr. Kennedy said. “And this investigation needs to be completed on this gentleman, and the results need to be reported to the American people.”


THE SHAPE OF THE CULTURE OF THE FUTURE ... THE RABBIT DIED!

The world's population is projected to reach 8 billion by mid-November of this year, according to the United Nations. The UN predicts the global population could grow to around 8.5 billion in just 8 years.

By 2080, the world's population is expected to peak at 10.4 billion. Then there's a 50% chance that the population will plateau or begin to decrease by 2100. More conservative models like the one published in 2020 in the Lancet anticipate the global population would be about 8.8 billion people by 2100.

What's driving current population growth is not a higher birth rate. What drives global population growth is that fewer people are dying young. Global life expectancy was 72.8 years in 2019, an increase of nine years since 1990. That is expected to increase to 77.2 years by 2050.

WHO'S FAULT IS IT ANYWAY?

In 1950, women typically had five births each; globally, last year, it was 2.3 births. By 2050, the UN projects a further global decline to 2.1 births per woman.

In some countries, it is lower. In the US the 1950s, it was 3.6 births per woman, it slipped to 1.6 in 2020, according to the World Bank. In Italy, it was 1.2; in Japan, it was 1.3; in China, 1.2. In January 2022, the country announced the birth rate fell for the fifth year in a row, even with the repeal of the one-child policy, allowing couples to have up to three children as of 2021.

1.7 vs 2.1 - THE RABBIT DIED

"Virtually every developed country is below two, and it's been that way for 20 or 30 years," Chamie said. Most countries have gone through what's called a demographic transition.

The only continent that hasn't finished this transition, he said, is parts of Africa, where there are 15 to 20 countries where the average number of children couples have is five. But in those countries, children still face high death rates. The infant mortality rate for kids under 5 is 8 to 10 times higher than in developed regions, and maternal mortality is more than double, Chamie said.

OTHER ENTERTAINMENT OR CABLE TV

If women in these African regions had more access to contraception, education, and health care, these problems could be addressed and the global population could decline further -- but people would be better off in terms of individual health.

The 'gold medal' century

In terms of population growth, the 20th century was an anomaly.

"That century was the most impressive demographic century ever. It had more gold medals than all the other centuries," Charmie said.

The human population nearly quadrupled something that had never happened before in recorded history. That's largely because of improvements in public health.

The world has antibiotics, vaccines, public health programs, and improved sanitation to thank for people living longer and more mothers and children surviving birth.

With contraception, especially in 1964, when the oral pill was widely introduced in the US, couples were now better able to determine when and how many children they had.

As more women got an education, worked outside the home and got a later start on children in many countries with access to contraception, couples had fewer children and the population started to decline.

In 2020, the global population growth rate fell under 1% for the first time since 1950.

The changing picture in the US ... 1.7 to 2.1 plus

Congressional Budget Office: U.S. Population Growth Will Be ‘Entirely’ Driven by Immigration by 2043

Understanding potential patterns in future population levels is crucial for anticipating and planning for changing age structures, resource and health-care needs, and environmental and economic landscapes. Future fertility patterns are a key input to estimation of future population size, but they are surrounded by substantial uncertainty and diverging methodologies of estimation and forecasting, leading to important differences in global population projections. Changing population size and age structure might have profound economic, social, cultural and geopolitical impacts in the United States.

The Congressional Budget Office is predicting in a demographics report it published in July that by 2043 population growth in the United States will be “entirely” driven by net immigration.

“By 2043, deaths exceed births,” says the CBO report, “population growth after that point is driven entirely by net immigration, in CBO’s projections.”

“Over the course of the next decade, immigration accounts for about three-quarters of the overall increase in the size of the population, and the net effects of fertility and mortality account for the remaining quarter,” says the report.

“After 2032, population growth is increasingly driven by net immigration, which accounts for all population growth in 2043 and beyond,” it says.

“Population growth is determined by births, deaths, and net immigration,” says the CBO report. “In CBO’s projections, fertility rates remain low and immigration becomes an increasingly important part of overall population growth.”

According to the CBO’s projections, the number of babies born to American women will continue below the “replacement rate” into the future.

“In CBO’s projections, the total fertility rate falls to 1.60 births per woman in 2021, rises to 1.75 births per woman in 2030, and remains at that value thereafter,” it says. “That rate is below the replacement rate—the fertility rate required for a generation to exactly replace itself in the absence of immigration—of about 2.1 births per woman.”

The CBO projects that the numbers of both legal and illegal immigrants coming to the United States will increase in the coming years.

“CBO develops its projections of net immigration (the number of all people who enter the United States less the number who leave in that year) using three categories: lawful permanent residents (LPRs), who are authorized to work, liable to pay income taxes, and eligible for most federal programs; legal temporary residents (LTRs), whose eligibility for federal programs is limited; and foreign-born people without legal status, who are generally not eligible for federal programs,” explains the CBO report.

“Under current law, annual net immigration to the United States would rise from 950,000 people, on average, in the first decade of the projection period to 1.1 million people, on average, in the third decade, CBO projects,” says the report.

“LPRs, which are the largest category of projected total net flows, rise from 800,000 to 870,000 people per year, on average, from the first decade to the third decade in CBO’s projections,” it says.

“Net flows of foreign-born people without legal status rise from 80,000 people per year, on average, in the first decade to 150,000 people per year in the third decade,” says the report. “CBO projects net flows of LTRs to be 80,000 people per year, on average, throughout the 30-year projection period.”

Preventing population problems down the road

As the population ages and birth rates decline in some areas of the globe, that could put strain on social systems.

The share of the population over age 65 will rise from 10% in 2022 to 16% in 2050. That's twice the number of kids under age 5.

Globally, the trick to make such a population age imbalance work, is that governments will need to be proactive, the UN says. Countries with aging populations need to adapt public programs that will support this growing population of older people. That means shoring up programs like social security, pensions and establishing universal access to health care and long-term care.

In the US, William Frey, a demographer and senior fellow with Brookings Metro, said he doesn't see the need for more couples to have more babies to address the age imbalance in the United States. Policies that would support couples that want children -- affordable daycare and family leave policies, for example -- could help, but that that hasn't made a big difference in terms of fertility rates.

USA CULTURAL TRAINING ON US NORMS

Fertility is below the replacement rate in the US, meaning couples are having fewer than two children each, but the rate is not as low as it is in most of Europe, he said.

"I don't think in the US it's an issue of collapse, because we can certainly open the faucet for more immigrants anytime we want to," Frey said. "We'll have no paucity of people who want to come through the door to immigrate here in the future. Immigrants and their children are younger than the population as a whole and so that will help to keep the population from aging as well."


Monday, August 29, 2022

EXPERT VIROLOGISTS WERE CALLED UPON AS ORWELL'S PIGS