Labor Force Shrinks As Jobless Swell Disability Ranks
That same month, more than 225,000 workers applied for Social Security disability benefits, and nearly 90,000 were enrolled, according to new data from the Social Security Administration.
Compared with June 2009, the month the economic recovery officially started, the labor force has shrunk by 365,000, a trend that has never occurred in any post World War 11 recovery. Those saw the labor force climb by the millions by this point in their recoveries, even as unemployment rates were driven down.
The decline in the workforce combined with the growing population has pushed the labor force participation rate — which compares those working or looking for a job the working age population — fell again in April to 63.6%. That's down from 65.7% in mid-2009, and is the lowest it's been since 1981.
Economists note that the shrinking labor force has masked the true size of the unemployment problem, since people who quit looking for a job are no longer counted as unemployed.
In fact, had the labor force participation rate had stayed where it was in June 2009, the unemployment rate would be around 11%.
Many of those who've quit looking have instead signed up for disability benefits.
So far this year, nearly 1 million workers have applied to get on the disability program. According to the Social Security Administration, more than a third will eventually be enrolled in the program.
Almost 90,000 workers enrolled the program in April, pushing the total for new enrollees over 333,000 in the first four months of the year.
If you add in spouses and dependents, the number of beneficiaries added to the program so far this year climbs to 539,000.
As IBD reported recently, more than 5 million workers and their families have enrolled in the disability program since Obama took office.
A report last fall from the Obama administration's economic advisers warns that the mass exodus of workers who can't find a job onto the disability rolls poses a long-term risk to the economy, since once enrolled, these workers almost never return to the active workforce. This can, the report said, result "in a loss to society of the economic contribution those workers could have made."
SOME QUESTIONS TO FRAME THE ISSUE, WHAT IS THE:
- monthly applications for SS disability benefits?
- monthly applications for those leaving SS disability?
- monthly application for SS benefits?
- monthly statistic for those reaching 62 years of age?
- monthly statistic for those reaching 65 years of age?
- monthly statistic for those reaching 67 years of age?
- monthly statistic for work force participation?
- monthly statistic for those entering the work force?
- monthly statistic for those leaving the SS Insurance Program due to death?
Employers in U.S. Added Fewer Jobs Than Forecast in April By Shobhana Chandra - May 4, 2012 12:12 PM ET
American employers added fewer workers than forecast in April and the jobless rate unexpectedly fell as people left the labor force, adding to concern the economic expansion is cooling.Payrolls climbed 115,000, the smallest increase in six months, after a revised 154,000 gain in March that was larger than initially estimated, Labor Department figures showed today inWashington. The median estimate of 85 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 160,000 advance. The jobless rate fell to a three-year low of 8.1 percent, and earnings stagnated.
A representative from Time Warner Cable takes job applications at a job fair on May 3, 2012 in New York City. Photographer: Spencer Platt/Getty Images
May 4 (Bloomberg) -- Chad Moutray, chief economist at National Association of Manufacturers, talks about U.S. manufacturing and employment. He speaks with Scarlet Fu on Bloomberg Television's "InBusiness." (Source: Bloomberg)
May 4 (Bloomberg) -- John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC, talks about the April U.S. jobs report, economy and Federal Reserve policy. Payrolls climbed 115,000, the smallest gain in six months, after a revised 154,000 rise in March that was more than initially estimated, Labor Department figures showed. The jobless rate fell to a three-year low of 8.1 percent. Silvia speaks with Scarlet Fu on Bloomberg Television's "InBusiness." (Source: Bloomberg)
May 4 (Bloomberg) -- Roger Altman, chairman of Evercore Partners Inc. and former U.S. deputy treasury secretary, talks about today's April jobs report and the outlook for the economy and Federal Reserve monetary policy. Altman, speaking with Betty Liu on Bloomberg Television's "In the Loop," also comments on Facebook Inc.'s initial public offering. Bloomberg's Michael McKee also speaks. (Source: Bloomberg)
Job seekers at a job fair on May 3, 2012 in the Queens borough of New York City. Photographer: Spencer Platt/Getty Images
Stocks and bond yields fell on bets that a slowdown in hiring will restrain the wage growth needed to fuel the consumer spending that accounts for 70 percent of the world’s largest economy. The data pose a challenge for President Barack Obama, who was attacked by Republican challenger Mitt Romney’s campaign today for his “failed economic record.”
“We’re still very much on the recovery path, but we’ve got a huge amount of ground to make up in the labor market,” saidScott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates Inc. in St. Petersburg, Florida, who accurately forecast the unemployment rate.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 1.5 percent to 1,371.41 at 12:08 p.m. in New York. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 1.88 percent from 1.93 percent late yesterday.
Transportation and warehousing, government agencies and construction all cut jobs in April. Bloomberg survey estimates ranged from increases of 89,000 to 210,000 after a previously reported 120,000 rise in March.
Obama Campaign
The data come a day before Obama formally opens his re- election campaign with rallies in the swing states of Ohio andVirginia. Romney has made the president’s stewardship of the economy a point of attack and polls show voters are focused on jobs and growth.
“From green jobs that never materialized to an unemployment rate that has remained above 8 percent for 39 straight months, President Obama’s rhetoric simply doesn’t match with his failed economic record,” Andrea Saul, a Romney Campaign spokeswoman, said in a statement.
Alan Krueger, chairman of Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, focused on 26 consecutive months of private job growth. Today’s report “provides further evidence that the economy is continuing to heal from the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression,” he said in a statement.
Private payrolls, which exclude government agencies, rose 130,000 last month after a revised gain of 166,000. They were projected to rise by 165,000, the survey showed.
Auto Revival
The Obama campaign is pointing to a revival in the auto industry to support his record.
Chrysler Group LLC, the automaker controlled by Fiat SpA, said it will accelerate the addition of 1,100 jobs and a third crew of workers by hiring them in November, pulling ahead plans for increasing production in early 2013. Earlier this week, it also said four plants will skip normally scheduled two-week midyear shutdowns to meet increased demand.
At the same time, cost-cutting is prompting reductions at some companies. H&R Block Inc. (HRB), the biggest U.S. tax preparer, plans to reduce 350 jobs and close about 200 company-owned offices. AMR Corp.’s American Airlines this month said it will eliminate 1,200 airport agent, baggage and cargo jobs as part of a bankruptcy restructuring plan to trim annual labor spending.
Weakening consumer confidence is hurting sales at businesses like Tops American Grill, Bakery & Bar in Schenectady, New York.
No Plans to Hire
Evan Christou, the owner, said he has no plans to add to his staff of 42 employees. Sales were up about 6 percent earlier this year before dropping off when gasoline prices went up. He said he would need to see a significant increase in sales for a sustained period before hiring more workers.
“We’re kind of consolidating and multitasking,” said Christou, 49. “In this market, it’s pretty much a wait-and-see attitude.”
Economists pointed to some bright spots in today’s report. Payroll gains for the prior two months were revised higher by a total of 53,000 jobs. And some of the slowdown may reflect unusually warm weather that boosted hiring early in the year.
“The weather was mild in January and February, and it’s very possible that hiring was pulled forward,” said Christophe Barraud, an economist and strategist at Market Securities Paris LLP, who correctly forecast the payrolls figure. “This report is not good, but we have to wait for the next one to see if the real trend is actually decelerating.”
Jobless Rate
The unemployment rate was forecast to hold at 8.2 percent, according to the survey median. It has exceeded 8 percent since February 2009, the longest such stretch since monthly records began in 1948.
The participation rate, which indicates the share of working-age people in the labor force, fell to 63.6 percent, the lowest since December 1981, from 63.8 percent.
The report showed a drop in long-term unemployed Americans. The number of people out of work for 27 weeks or longer fell as a percentage of all jobless, to 41.3 percent.
Among those still looking for work is David Bouchey, who lost his job as a financial analyst in 2007. He said he thought his years of experience in the industry and three post-graduate degrees would land him a job.
“I’m overqualified for almost every job I apply for,” said Bouchey, 54. He, his wife and two sons live on about $1,000 a month in public assistance. “I never thought the economy would be this bad.”
Hourly Earnings
Average hourly earnings were $23.38 in April, essentially unchanged from the month before, today’s report showed. It was the first time without an increase since August. Compared with April of last year, earnings climbed 1.8 percent, matching January as the smallest in a year. The average work week for all workers held at 34.5 hours.
Faster economic growth would help lay the groundwork for more hiring. The economy expanded at a 2.2 percent annual rate in the first quarter after a 3 percent pace the prior three months, the Commerce Department reported last week. Consumer spending grew 2.9 percent, the most in more than a year.
The improvement in the U.S. contrasts with some of the other major economies. Joblessness in the 17-nation euro area increased to 10.9 percent in March, the highest since April 1997, from 10.8 percent a month earlier, data showed this week.
United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS), the world’s largest package- delivery company, is among firms taking note.
‘Positive News’
“During the quarter, the most positive news has come from the U.S. where indications of economic rebound are evident,” Scott Davis, chief executive officer of UPS, said on an April 26 conference call. “Retail sales have grown faster than expected and the employment environment has improved. On the other hand, economies in other parts of the world continue to face challenges.”
Federal Reserve policy makers last month repeated their plan to hold borrowing costs low through late 2014 to spur growth.
“The unemployment rate has declined but remains elevated,” Fed policy makers said in an April 25 statement. The group “expects economic growth to remain moderate over coming quarters and then to pick up gradually,” and “anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline gradually.”
Today’s report showed that factory payrolls increased by 16,000, the smallest in five months. Construction companies cut jobs for a third straight month. Retailers added 29,300 employees, almost recouping losses in the prior two months. Employment gains at service-providers were the weakest since August. Government payrolls declined for the seventh month in the last eight.
The so-called underemployment rate -- which includes part- time workers who’d prefer a full-time position and people who want work but have given up looking -- held at 14.5 percent.
