Thursday, December 5, 2013

"WIN", "PLACE" AND "SHOW" ... AND THE WINNER IS THE HOUSE BOOKIE


... and the story continues, but for the moment, prognostications on the 2014 mid-term election outcomes based on different methodologies, which are very valuable in their own right shed little light for the "win", "place" and "show" crowd. For example, handicappers like Charlie Cook, the Rothenberg Political Report and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball see relatively few toss-up races, which are balanced between Democratic and Republican seats. Similarly, political scientist Michael McDonald has argued that the most likely outcome in 2014 is no shift in control of the House. Political scientist Alan Abramowitz’s forecasting model also suggests only a small seat shift given the rough parity in the generic ballot today.
  
U.S. HOUSE AND U.S. SENATE CAN BOTH STAND SOME CHANGES
Oh, has the race already begun ... the race never ends! The 2014 elections are now 11 months away, but the political locus has already entertained us in the political theatre with drama and tragedy 
metastasizing just in the past three months. Republicans went into a political free fall after the government shutdown, and shortly thereafter Democrats plunged into boiling water thanks to the botched launch of and early public reaction to the Affordable Care Act.

MOUTH TO MOUTH ... OR MOUTH TO EAR ... GUTTER TO SEWER THE BEST LAID PLANS ...
"DEMOCRACY IS THE ART OF RUNNING THE CIRCUS FROM THE MONKEY CAGE",  - H.L. MENCHEN

LEGISLATIVE PROCREATION
The "harmonic mean" will persist in the composition of both chambers.  Some small changes but in reality no major tremors or earthquakes are in the making.  It appears more of a balancing act than a high wire act of courage.